Complexity of climate change impacts
The risk assessment process should identify whether the proposed activity, land use, event or investment is affected by a single climate parameter or whether it is a complex issue with multiple effects and implications over time. The latter needs to be addressed at policy level, with decision-making carried through consistently over time. Relatively general information may be adequate to start policy development and information can be refined over time within a generic policy context. For example, in planning an urban extension, if there are options, low-lying coastal areas should be avoided, and if flood plains are being considered, higher and more frequent floods than in the past should be assumed.
Example
Napier City Council has identified sea-level rise due to climate change as a risk to urban sustainability. Since 1996 the council has undertaken several studies of coastal hazards and has imposed coastal hazard areas north of the city, within which future development is strictly limited. Sea-level rise is just one factor being considered in long-term erosion trends in the areas, but is recognised and accounted for in a risk-based planning approach. The city's asset management plans for infrastructure also note possible effects of climate change. Because of the low-lying nature of much of the city area, all systems are pumped and groundwater level changes as well as increased flood frequencies could increase costs. The city regularly reviews plans as climate change information is updated.
